2025 Oscar Predictions

On Thursday January 23, 2025 the 97th Academy Awards will be announced in all 23 categories. Since 1995 I've been getting up at the ungodly hour of 5:15am to watch the 5:30am announcement. Why? Because Oscar Sunday is my Superbowl. It's my Draft Day. It's my Christmas Day. And this yea is no different. I saw over 154 2024 released films (thank you AMC Stubbs Pass) and with the help of Gold Derby and Award Expert App, I'm able to to make predictions and quickly rank my picks. So I'm going to give you my PREDICTIONS (not who I necessarily want to see nominated) - and just know I have a track record of being correct 80% of the time. So here's my best educated picks. 

Best Picture 

One could argue there are eight locked nominations with 5 or 6 films fighting for the final two spots. Leading the pack are Emilia Perez, Anora, Conclave, Wicked, The Brutalist and A Complete Unknown. The above mentioned have been winning the majority of critic awards and seeing a lot of guild love. Had this been a top 5 only year, like in 2009, I would say Wicked or A Complete Unknown would be the duo duking it out for a 5th spot, but with 10 guaranteed nominated films, these six are locks. That leaves room for the horror film The Substance and the science fiction blockbuster Dune 2 to put 8 films in a safe spot to nominate.

Now we are down to a handful of indie films looking to break through. The political thriller and PGA nominee September 5 looks good, but with little box office and almost no other guaranteed nominations, I have it as an honorable mention. Critical darlings Challengers and Nickel Boys seem to be facing the same fate. The lack of buzz in other categories will hold them back. I'm Still Here had a nice bump after winning Best Actress at the Golden Globes, but with only a Best International nomination on the horizon, it feels too late to the race. That leaves the once powerful front runner Sing Sing with it's depleting fanfare and A Real Pain with it's award winning script and supporting actor frontrunner Keiran Culkin as the safe bets to round out the top ten. 

Predicted 10 Films: (Alphabetical)
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown 
Conclave
Dune Part 2 
Emilia Perez 
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
The Substance
Wicked       

Best Director 

Despite the belief a top ten film would be where the director's guild would choose from, this category traditionally has a surprise pick. Whether it's the film Cold War or even snubbing Best Picture winner's like Green Book, this is the most highbrow of the guilds. Brady Corbet for The Brutalist feels like the frontrunner with Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez as the toughest competition. Sean Baker won the Cannes Film Festival award for Best Director and Picture, and after being snubbed a few years ago for All Quiet on the Western Front, Edward Berger looks to be a lock after getting DGA, BAFTA, and the Golden Globe nominations. That leaves one spot open for a wild card pick, and as much as I like A Complete Unknown's James Mangold, his film is too mainstream for an Oscar nomination. 

Of the films not looking to get a Best Picture nomination, RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) and Mohammed Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) could be the surprise nomination that usually occupies that fifth spot. But I'm not leaning that way. I think that while Denis Villeneuve (Dune 2) and John Chu (Wicked) will see their films clean up in tech categories, the fifth spot will go to Coralie Fargeat, a woman director (a hot button Oscar topic every year), who also made the most audacious film of the year in The Substance.

Best Director Predictions:
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Edward Berger (Conclave) 
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)      
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)       

Best Actress

There are easily ten women who could be called out on Oscar nomination morning. Five of them would be first time nominees, three have been nominated before, and two are previous winners. Let's start with those who have momentum but still on the outside looking in. Angelina Jolie (Maria) started strong with Oscar odds but has simply faded away after missing SAG and BAFTA. Amy Adams saw Nightbitch get a terrible release and dumped on Hulu, hurting her chances. Oscar favorite Nicole Kidman gives a submissive performance in Babygirl, that might be too weird for Oscar voters. And then there's Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl that got a surprise SAG nomination - but this feels like last year when Adam Sandler got a SAG nomination for Hustle. Think of that nom as a "thank you for the years" award. 

This leaves six actresses and five spots. Demi Moore (The Substance), Mikey Madison (Anora), and Karla Sofia  Gascon (Emilia Perez) feel like locks, though all have arguments against them, as none are previous nominees. Plus, all three are in genre movies (horror, comedy, and a musical) which might turn off snobby Oscar voters. There's also Wicked's Cynthia Erivo, who should be a lock, but with a sequel coming next year might have to wait, and Mike Leigh's Hard Truths just got a theater release, meaning Marianne Jean-Baptiste should have a better chance getting in, considering she's pretty beloved. The dark horse is Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here), considering her film is in top contention for International film. This category is a great argument it might be time for the Oscars to move to six nominations. 

Best Actress Predictions:
Mikey Madison (Anora) 
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) 
Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)

Best Actor 

And then there were four. If any category had the majority of their contenders locked in and certified it's Best Actor. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) haven't missed in any precursor awards, and their films are looking like likely Best Picture contenders. That leaves one spot open and four films and three actors vying for that first time nomination. You read that right, three actors. Sebastian Stan has his BAFTA nominated performance as Donald Trump in The Apprentice and his Golden Globe winning work in A Different Man splitting votes, while SAG nominee Daniel Craig (Queer) and BAFTA nominee Hugh Grant (Heretic) duke it out for international votes. Don't count out A Real Pain's Jesse Eisenberg as the surprise pick, as his film might make Picture, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay. And he's a past nominee. But if I had to go with anyone, it's Craig with the early buzz and the SAG nomination. This one is too close to really call, and my heart is with Grant - so you know he's out if I'm rooting for him. 

Best Actor Predictions:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Daniel Craig (Queer)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)     

Best Supporting Actress 

If one category will flip it's own script on nomination morning it's this one. To be honest, people are convinced it's between Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) and Wicked's Ariana Grande. I'm 100% in on Saldana and 90% in on pop star Grande. The one time Nickelodeon child star feels like the Margot Robbie snub. The Lady Gaga pass over. The one just a little too popular to win over the theater geeks. While I'm predicting her now, I'm just saying don't be surprised to see her snubbed Oscar nomination morning. From there we have a who's who of talented lady performers. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) benefits from being the only woman in her film with major screen time. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) has been snubbed too many times to be locked in, but her film is a strong contender. The queen of campaigning, Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl) just got BAFTA and SAG nominations, stealing momentum from earlier favorites The Substance's Margaret Qualley and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys). A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro has the edge on her co-star Elle Fanning, but can Selena Gomez overcome pop star bias and get in for Emilia Perez? If the Academy wants to give Emilia Perez a record amount of nominations, they'll have to put her here.
 
But the one that could be the real contender is Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), even though she's looking to have back to back snub years after Till was denied a Best Actress nom. 

Best Supporting Actress Predictions:
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)

Best Supporting Actor 

There have been a few surprises in this category all awards season. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) looked like a lock since those first trailers hit, but with the film losing steam, he went missing from SAG and BAFTA. That keeps Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) as the frontrunner as a troubled cousin on a cross country trip in Poland. Edward Norton hasn't missed anywhere for A Complete Unknown, Yura Borisov (Anora) is the surprise nominee gaining fans, and Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) clearly is beloved by his fellow actors. Fun fact: Both Strong and Culkin won Emmys for their roles on HBO's Succession - making this another time they'll potentially compete against each other. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) was looking like a potential favorite until he missed at SAG.

Once a favorite, Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) was looking like his chances were drifting away until BAFTA sent him a lifeline, and Jonathan Bailey was a surprise nominee at SAG for Wicked. But that might have just been the actors showering Wicked with extra flowers. If there was one long shot veteran who could sneak in, it's Conclave's Stanley Tucci. Think JK Simmons in Being the Ricardo's a few years back.

Best Supporting Actor Predictions:
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)       

The Rest of the Awards

From this point on, I'll simply post the films I believe will get nominated, because rational is useless at this point. It's simply the same ten films mentioned over and over again. 
 
Best Adapted Screenplay 
A Complete Unknown 
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Sing Sing 
Wicked  

Best Original Screenplay 
Anora 
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Substance
September 5  

International Feature 
Emilia Perez 
I'm Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig  
The Girl with the Needle 

Documentary 
Black Box Diaries 
Daughters 
No Other Land 
Sugarcane
Will & Harper 

Animated Feature 
Inside Out 2
Flow
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot 

Cinematography
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown 
Conclave 
Dune 2
Nosferatu 

Editing 
Anora 
A Complete Unknown 
Conclave
Emilia Perez 
Wicked  

Production Design 
The Brutalist 
Conclave 
Dune 2
Nosferatu
Wicked 

Costume Design 
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune 2
Nosferatu 
Wicked  

Makeup & Hairstyling 
A Different Man 
Dune 2
Nosferatu 
The Substance
Wicked      

Visual Effects 
Alien: Romulus 
Dune 2
Gladiator II
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes 
Wicked 

Sound 
A Complete Unknown 
Dune 2
Emilia Perez 
Gladiator II 
Wicked

Score 
The Brutalist 
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Perez 
Nosferatu  

Original Song 
Compress/Repress (Challengers)
El Mal (Emilia Perez)
Mi Camino (Emilia Perez)
The Journey (The Six Triple Eight)
Kiss the Sky (The Wild Robot)

Films With MULTIPLE Nominations Predictions 
Emilia Perez - 11 
Wicked - 10
Conclave - 10
The Brutalist - 9 
A Complete Unknown - 8
Dune 2 - 7 
Anora - 6
Nosferatu - 5 
The Substance - 5 
A Real Pain - 3 
Sing Sing - 3 
Gladiator II - 2 
Challengers - 2 
The Wild Robot - 2