Sunday March 2, 2025 the Academy Awards will hand out Oscars in 23 categories. Some years like 2024 and 2022 we can predict most award winners with certainty. But this year it's an open race with Emilia Perez leading with 13 nominations, but after the star, transgender woman Karla Sofia Gascon was discovered to have sent out a series of ugly racist tweets, the film's chances of winning were cut down immediately. That opened up the door for early favorites Anora and Conclave as well as late comers Wicked and The Brutalist to take the front runner spot. But a funny thing happened on the way to The Dolby Theater - the awards shows split up the top prize, causing as much uncertainty as the conclave picking a Pope. 

If I had it my way, I'd be giving The Brutalist the top spot, but in reality I'm fine if it's just anything but Emilia Perez. The supporting actor awards have been sweeping while the lead acting awards are going back an forth. SAG and BAFTA through a few wild cards and curve balls, stopping Anora's late season surge. And I'm still convinced Wicked could defy gravity and just get that last minute win with a nice package of tech awards and the top prize. 

Here are my predictions for the 2025 Academy Awards. These aren't my personal favorites, just who I think will win based on precursor awards (Producer's Guild, Screen Actor's Guild, Writer's Guild, Director's Guild, Critic's Choice, BAFTA, and Golden Globes) and my own gut feeling. So here are my picks. If you win any money in the Oscar pool at work, be a mensch and give me 10%!     
My Picks Are In Bold

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave 
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here 
Nickel Boys
The Substance 
Wicked 

It comes down to three films that won the big prizes: Anora (WGA, DGA, PGA, Critics Choice), Conclave (BAFTA, SAG), and The Brutalist (Golden Globes - Drama), and it could really go to any of them. After Wicked didn't win the Globe or SAG, it has to hope the sequel gets the LOTR treatment next year, and the Golden Globe winning Emilia Perez became toxic after the Karla Sofia Gascon tweets went viral. In the end, Conclave is a well liked, "weightier" film with a timeless feel. Plus, the ensemble is just too good and beloved to ignore in a year of so much parity.     

Directing
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

This one is completely up for grabs even though Baker won the DGA. With Corbet winning the BAFTA and Golden Globe, that combo is pretty tough to beat, considering Baker wasn't winning many prizes until the end here.  But with Edward Berger getting snubbed for Conclave, that leaves space for a director whose film might not win Best Picture. In the end, Baker winning DGA and Cannes director award in May, I think the Academy will follow suite and give him his flowers here. 

Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

It looked like Brody had this locked in after winning the BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice awards. Then Chalamet took the SAG and now it's anyone's guess. The SAG has predicted best actor 24/30 years now, with only Chadwick Boseman (2021) and Denzel Washington (2018) winning SAG but losing on Oscar night in the last ten years. But I think Brody has enough precursor love and a great comeback narrative to pull through.    

Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

What makes this race so interesting is that it's basically the two versions of Demi Moore in The Substance, with Madison in the Sue role. I think if the Academy goes with Madison, they will completely undercut the entire message of the body horror satire. Even though Madison won BAFTA and Indie Spirits, Moore has Critics Choice, Globes, and SAG. It's her time, and after 20 years in actor purgatory, she's due a big comeback win.  Side Note: Torres could surprise as the Academy loved I'm Still Here more than any other awards body, but with all the crossover voters giving the other actresses votes all season, she might have came on too late. 

Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Keiran Culkin has won Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA, Indie Spirits, and the Golden Globes, plus nearly every critics award. He's 38 years old, been acting for 30+ years and is clearly beloved. He wins in a landslide. 

Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Saldana has swept the awards season, and like Culkin, she has won at every major televised awards show. It's in the bag for her.  

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
A Complete Unknown
Conclave 
Emilia Pérez 
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing 

While Sing Sing had more heart, and a great narrative with the one time prisoners writing the script, Conclave won Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the USC Scripter. Give this film the white smoke. 

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Anora
The Brutalist 
A Real Pain 
September 5 
The Substance

I might be wrong, but something tells me A Real Pain will win over three Best Picture nominees. Anora won WGA. The Brutalist hasn't won a major screenplay award. The Substance won Critics Choice and Cannes. But A Real Pain won BAFTA and Indie Spirits. That's a lot of industry support. Plus with Culkin's supporting actor win, this would be a nice double win, like The Usual Suspects in 1996 when Kevin Spacey won and the film won screenplay. The safe money is on Anora, but since I don't think it pulls out Best Picture, I have to give it to the script with the "most script." 

Animated Feature Film
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail 
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl 
The Wild Robot 

It looked like Flow was going to upset the season after winning the Golden Globe, but The Wild Robot has three total nominations, including sound and score. Plus it got nominated for the USC Scripter Award, a huge honor for adapted screenplays. 

International Feature Film
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)

Emilia Perez has 13 nominations, and that means very little when the star of your movie is now the greatest villain in awards season history. EP could still win, but I'm predicting I'm Still Here, a much more traditional international film winner with a beloved actress giving a top five performance of the year, in a true story that celebrates Latino resistance instead of playing into broad stereotypes like the French film.   

Documentary Feature Film
Black Box Diaries 
No Other Land 
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane

I've seen none of these films, but since Porcelain War won DGA and the other four haven't won a major award, it's a simple process by elimination. No Other Land never got distribution, even though it's a critical darling, and Sugarcane could upset, but again, it didn't win anything to prove it has a clear fanbase. 

Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two 
Emilia Pérez 
Maria
Nosferatu 

So this one is an exciting award to follow as Maria won the American Society of Cinematographers Award, beating out the films its pitted against. Dune won this a few years ago. The Brutalist was the favorite with it's amazing tour of the world, but then Nosferatu won BAFTA. Yet, when voters go down the line, I think they'll pick the film with the best chance to win best picture, and that's The Brutalist. 

Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave 
Gladiator II 
Nosferatu 
Wicked 

Had Gladiator II earned more nominations, it might have been the favorite, having won this award in 2001 for the original film, but there's no way it repeats here. This award should go to Wicked, with all the magically colored dresses, school uniforms, and love for the visuals of John M. Chu's fantasy. 

Film Editing
Anora 
The Brutalist 
Conclave 
Emilia Pérez 
Wicked

If Conclave wins editing, it's winning Best Picture. If anything else takes this, which Wicked and all those dance numbers could, then Anora or The Brutalist is taking the top prize. If Anora or The Brutalist wins this award, then look for them to sweep the night away. But I'm officially on the Conclave train.  

Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man 
Emilia Pérez 
Nosferatu 
The Substance 
Wicked 

The Substance has won every time its been in this category across the awards season. This film made two gorgeous actresses look like hideous monsters. It's too perfect a job to not award.  

Production Design
The Brutalist 
Conclave 
Dune: Part Two 
Nosferatu 
Wicked 

The Brutalist is about production design, so it should be sweeping, but Wicked has all those great sets alluding to the Broadway musical and the original 1939 classic The Wizard of Oz. The Academy might not be able to award the sequel Wicked For Good if there isn't much variation, so expect them to give the tech team as many as they can Oscar night. 

Sound
A Complete Unknown 
Dune: Part Two 
Emilia Pérez 
Wicked 
The Wild Robot 

Check this out: Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, Wicked, and The Wild Robot all won sound awards in their respective categories at The Golden Reel Awards, and A Complete Unknown won the Sound Mixing Award at the Cinema Audio Society Awards. So every film has won the top sound award they could, making this a hard one to choose. I would give it to A Complete Unknown for those epic concert scenes, but I think the bigger the better, and Dune 2 is as big as it gets. 

Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus 
Better Man 
Dune: Part Two 
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes 
Wicked 

If the Oscar voters want to award Wicked everything possible, then the upset win would be the beloved prequel, but Dune 2 has those sand worms that are beyond stunning. 

Music (Original Score)
The Brutalist 
Conclave 
Emilia Pérez 
Wicked 
The Wild Robot

It's the gong heard around the world. The Brutalist's score is already a fan favorite and the most memorable. I will say this, if Conclave or Wicked pull this out, then The Brutalist might not win anything.   

Music (Original Song)
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez 
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight 
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing 
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez 
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Diane Warren has 17 nominations with The Journey, but she'll have to wait for number 18 as "El Mal" has swept the season. With 13 Oscar nominations, Emilia Perez will most likely win two awards. 

Animated Short Film
Beautiful Men 
In the Shadow of the Cypress 
Magic Candies 
Wander to Wonder 
Yuck!

I've seen all 5 films here, and I would pick Magic Candies if I was a voter, but Wander to Wonder won BAFTA and has Toby Jones doing voice work, meaning there's a little star power behind it. 

Live-Action Short Film
A Lien 
Anuja 
I’m Not a Robot 
The Last Ranger 
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

I've seen none of these, but Netflix put Anuja on their platform, giving it the most exposure. 

Documentary Short Film
Death by Numbers 
I Am Ready, Warden 
Incident 
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra 

Titles are important and how could you not vote for The Only Girl in the Orchestra? I Am Ready, Warden is the favorite, but is slipping in Oscar pundit odds every day. 

Total Wins Predictions:
Conclave - 3
The Brutalist - 3
Emilia Perez - 2
Wicked - 2 
Dune: Part 2 - 2 
The Substance - 2 
A Real Pain - 2 
I'm Still Here - 1
Porcelain War - 1  
Anora - 1
The Wild Robot- 1
The Only Girl in the Orchestra - 1
Wander to Wonder - 1
Anuja - 1 

I usually get 75% to 80% right every year. This year I'm not going 100% but maybe I'll do it next year! 
What are your picks? 

It is the best of problems, and it is the worst of problems: You've accidently double booked yourself! There are a million ways this could happen, and everyone has done it, so don't worry too much. While stand up comedy is something you might see as your career or future career, it's not as ridged as a 9 to 5 day job where if you book a doctor's appointment you have to get three supervisors at work to approve missing an hour of your week. While it can still be a very frustrating situation and cause anxiety, as long as you are open and honest, you'll be fine. Bookers deal with this a lot, but there are best practices depending on the situation. Here are a few things to consider when dealing with having too many venues wanting you on the same night. 

When You Accidently Double Book 
You get an email for a show in one month. It even pays. You're excited. Then you go to your calendar and realize you agreed to do a show somewhere else. You like both gigs equally. You're living out Sophie's Choice in the world of comedy. In this case, you have a few things to consider. 

1) Which venue gives me the most work?
2) Which venue has the most opportunities for future gigs?
3) Which booker responds the easiest to adjustments?
4) Which show is paying the most?
5) Have I canceled on this booker before?   

In an ideal world, you wouldn't have to ask these questions, but in an ideal world you wouldn't be double booked. If someone has been really loyal to you, then consider that. If the other show has access to comics you always wanted to work with, then think about that upside. If this is becoming a pattern with a booker, and you've canceled before, maybe don't cancel again, right? And do not discredit pay, as you have to make rent. 

Regardless, make a choice as quick as you realize what you've done and cancel the show that you weighed as less favorable. Email or DM quickly, with a short message: I'm so sorry, but I realized I double booked. Would I be able to reschedule? I'm free on ______. Again, I'm so sorry, and I'll never let that happen again.     

Then make sure you never do that again to them. If they don't want to rebook you, that is their prerogative. You put them in a tight space and added work to the show producing. But I've found most bookers are fine if you give them enough time. If they can't rebook you, wait a few months and just approach like you would a rebooking. More than likely they will have forgotten the canceling.  

When You Knowingly Double Book 
Now, let's say you get a booking and someone calls you up and asks you to be on their show. You know you're booked. You wanted that booking. But this other booking offered is also great. Here's what I'll say, the comedy gods tend to be kinder to accidental double bookings then to comics always looking for the better opportunity.

If you are booked for a show and venue sends a message requesting you to be on a show, just know you can say "I'm booked, but an other date down the road looks great. Can you shoot me a few dates you're looking to book?" 

While double booking and canceling the other shows seems no different than the accidental booking, keep in mind, you're training yourself to lie and be deceptive. And those type of characteristics bleed into other areas of your life. I can almost always tell when a comic cancels authentically and when its clear they think my show was their back up plan. 

If the new show isn't able to work with you on a better date, and you feel the need to cancel, again just email or call immediately. 

But there is one exception: If you work with an organization regularly, as a host, sound person, feature, etc. I would call if you are permanently leaving. Whenever I left a producer I was working with quarterly or weekly, I would call them and talk on the phone as a courtesy and sign of respect. The type of working relationship you have should have different ways in which you address these hard situations. Plus, this way you know you're getting a receptive response. Sending a message into the abyss might not get to them in time or leave more questions than answers.     
The basic golden rule: Do unto comics and bookers as you would want them to do unto you.    

Beware of Comics Who Say Yes But Don't Mean It 
On a side note, there is a tendency in some comics to agree to shows, even in writing, but not plan to go unless they feel up to it. There was a comic I used to book a lot, but I realized when I sent my Monday reminder message after locking him in weeks before, he'd always go "I'm sorry I forgot!" Once I didn't send a reminder and he never showed. I realized what he was doing - He was agreeing and only going to attend if I reminded him AND he hadn't booked something "bigger." 

While it's a hard realization that your show is expendable to some, I also know my shows have been a great experience for others. Behavior is a language. Believe them when they flake multiple times, and I've seen these comics have a good run, but eventually dry out of gigs because they assume the shows they didn't respect will always want them or ask them down the road. That's just not the case. Training yourself to be unprofessional will bleed into other areas of your career, so don't become "that guy."    

When You Have to Cancel a Gig For Personal Reasons 
Let's say tragedy occurs or you find out your family is having a birthday party for your dad and no one told you until a few days before - if you can get out of the show, tell the booker what happened. Over the past decade I've had road gigs I had to cancel because I was in the hospital, because my family had a party I wasn't aware of until days before, and even weddings where I had to attend. I simply messaged them and told them clearly what happened.

Personal business might seem like none of their business, but I believe in transparency in these situations. Writing "Hey, something personal came up, I can't make next week" sounds like a fishy situation, and I just won't reach out again. But if someone writes, "Hey, my family member needs me to take them to the hospital" or "My job is making me come in tonight, I'm so sorry" - I feel sympathy and try to rebook them as soon as I can. 

I've had to cancel because of a family death one time, so if someone has similar events, I immediately sympathize. With that said, I've also missed parties, said no to dates with women I liked, and went in later that night to work after telling my boss I need to be at the show. Sometimes we have to sacrifice to make it. It's case by case, but the more honesty you display, the better off you'll be.    

Final Thoughts   
Canceling a gig is never easy, but having to because you double booked that night makes it even more embarrassing. But stick with the general rule of being as professional as possible, and don't forget that everyone has done this. Comedy is a hard industry to navigate, and we all fear missing out on the next big opportunity. But if you just relax, communicate clearly, and remember your career won't end because you need to change your booking agreement, you'll have a much longer career than those who let these moments eat them up inside.    

​With that said, if you ever double book or cancel on me, you'll never work in this town again! (Please read in evil sarcastic voice). 

​It was recently Valentine's Day. For some it's a great week of being with the one you love. For other's it's the constant reminder that you are an unlovable creature wreaking of desperation and the failure of your mother's eye. But if you are doing stand up, you're probably feeling tempted to do relationship humor. And I mean the dating, marriage, sexual kind of stuff. The more tormented the material the better, they say. But here's the thing, if it becomes too mean spirited you find yourself turning the crowd against you or isolating yourself from from a portion of the crowd. That's fine if you have a fan base, but if you're trying to become a regular at a venue, you'll have to play both sides, if only to create an atmosphere that keeps them wanting more and the bookers happy. So here are things to "think about" - as opposed to hard rules - when talking about relationships on stage. 

Dress the Way You Want to Be Seen
When doing any type of relationship humor, you need to dress the part. If you want to be the slacker who doesn't understand your girl, dress like that. Want to be the mom who takes charge in the marriage, then look like you can take charge. Too often we lose the ability to sell a joke because we say we are X but look like a Y. The first half of my career, I was a sloppy and poorly dressed middle age guy who couldn't get a date. After my heart condition and dropping my first 50 pounds, the sweaty mess look didn't apply to me. All my jokes about women didn't work. I had to scrap them. When I started joking about dating women I met on Bumble, I wasn't doing well, until I started wearing a suit jacket and collared shirt. Suddenly, the crowd BELIEVED I was dating multiple women on dating websites. Just a small adjustment, but the clothes you wear have to match the way you talk about your love (or lack of) life.

Be Prepared To Annoy Half the Crowd If You Side With One Sex Too Much
I'm always amused when a comic trashes men or women exclusively and then looks at the crowd and goes, "Come on, we're at a comedy show!" Yes, and comedy shows have...wait for it...BOTH men and women! The real secret is to take a bit and tease one sex for 80% of the time, and then you want to put the punchline on the other sex at the end. If it is only one sided, you'll find that the balance is lacking, and the crowd will feel uncomfortable laughing, except the groups of guys or group of ladies out together. 

One trick is to this with political or religious jokes first, so the audience trusts your structure. You're trying to get the crowd into a "trance" to know when to laugh or applaud. After a few years you shouldn't be too surprised by the results. So if you make fun of Republicans, then make fun of Democrats at the end. George Carlin and Bill Maher do this really well. "Republicans are evil, and Democrats are stupid" is their template. If you mock Christians for 80% of the time, throw atheists under the bus. Pete Holmes does this perfectly with his deconstruction of the "we come from nothing" argument. 

This way when you take on one sex, the crowd becomes excited to see you go after the other sex at the end. Jim Gaffigan does this really well. "My wife is a genius but she nags and makes me do stuff and yells at me...but I'm also so lazy." That's the template to getting everyone on board.   

When you start to build a fan base, or the show has a particular theme that allows for a complete one sided thrashing on one group, then the stage is yours to do as you please. But, for the newbie, you might want to pepper the set with a few twists that get everyone on board. 

Don't Get Too Sad on Stage
I've been working with a few comics lately, and I found myself making the same note: Your tone is sadder than it is funny. While comedy can come from a place of pain, the end result must have laughter. Whether it's a surprise self realization, a silly act out, or just a classic exaggeration/comparison punchline, don't forget to end with the crowd laughing. I've made this mistake so many times, that some jokes I buried because I realized I wasn't over the situation. Some of it was classic relationship stories, but some was stuff I later worked through in therapy.

It's why I always say COMEDY ISN'T THERAPY - because there's no treatment. Comedy, when done destructively, becomes a loop in your head, like a sad character in a Bruce Springsteen song. Stand up takes the mud of pain and spins it into comedy gold. Speaking your truth is "part" of the journey - the other part is finding humor through your own red flags and misunderstandings.      

Final Thoughts
Relationship humor is one of the fastest ways to get an audience invested in your set quickly. In the words of Larry Flynt in the film The People vs. Larry Flynt, "...sex is legal [and] everybody is 'doing it' or everybody wants to be 'doing it.'" When you have an evergreen topic that deals with something everyone has an opinion on, it naturally builds tension and interest. The key is to keep it truthful and believable, while finding that balance in traditional stand up tricks of the trade. 

​If you find your relationship material isn't working, you can try one "hail Mary" play I used to do in my earliest years. I'd ask the crowd if they believed what I just said. Especially at bar shows. One guy yelled out: "It's too obvious! You look like you don't get laid!" This helped me reframe the jokes as I'm trying without actually working on me. That point of view changed everything. Today my dating material is trying to get comfortable with women actually liking me. As you grow, your point of view expands. So keep in mind the dating and marriage jokes from a few years ago should be more meaningful and richer by now. If they aren't, then go back to the source of those stories and jokes and find the new truths you neglected years ago when first starting out.     

​If there's one type of show that can go off the rails quickly, it's a bar show. Bar shows vary in their execution, but I'm specifically referring to a show where people come to a bar, and despite the venue advertising in the public bathroom, the audience is sort of held hostage by the show. In your early days you'll do a lot of these. After your "bringer days" dry up in year one or two you'll start asking for spots at bar shows just to fill out your calendar. While many comics try to avoid bar shows, I would argue if you are getting paid, they are the best place to stretch your comedy stage presence and work on your act in an unstable environment. So here's a few things to work on and be aware of when doing a bar show - if only to save the show and your sanity. 

Not All Bar Shows Are the Same Bar Shows 
A big mistake comics make is thinking the same types of people or management or staff will be making up the bar show environment. Some bar shows are in the wide open space, meaning everyone (those purposely there and those unwilling) will see them. Sometimes it's an isolated back room. And sometimes its a weirdly spaced out bar where most of the crowd is near the stage and the other patrons are behind a half wall unseen but their rowdiness is totally felt and heard. 

Then there's the staff and management. Sometimes the staff is excited because they'll get a free show, and sometimes they're dreading the show because they know the crowds get restless and tips decrease as people leave early. As a general rule, I would suggest you don't make fun of the bar or the waitstaff. Don't mention how the bathroom looks like a murder scene or how the waitresses have low cut clothing. No one wants their workplace or outfit the topic of conversation. 

As for the crowds - it's feast and famine. It's always a mixture of local bar flies, comic's guests, and strangers wandering in from "barkers" begging people to attend the show. Some crowds are game for the night's festivities while others are clearly upset they've been dragged into a comedy night no one but the comics wanted.

Regardless of the types of crowds and staff, always approach with a clean slate and open mind. The last vibe isn't always this current one.

You Can Only Control What You Can Control
As you see the show unfold, keep in mind, other comic's sets are not the same fate as yours. Maybe a comic bombs hard up front. Maybe a heckler takes control early on. Maybe there are TV's blasting in the background. Maybe the mic and amp echo. Maybe the waitstaff and bartender are talking loudly. There's only so much you can manage in your limited capacity.

If comics are struggling, take note if they're just plowing through material or being present with the vibe of the room. If they are just acting like it doesn't matter if the crowd is there or not, you can change that vibe by doing some crowd work up front with funny loaded questions. 
"Who came out because they knew it was comedy night?" When no one answers you make a joke like "Good see my social media presence is doing great!" 

When a couple people raise their hand, you say, "Who'd you come to see?" When they say one comic you can go, "Let's hear if for [Comic] dragging his friends here! Man, that car ride home is going to be awkward." 

You can still acknowledge the awkwardness without trashing the venue. 

And by being present and in the moment, the bar flies might take notice and admire you're not just telling jokes to a dead room. Too many comics try to tell as many jokes as possible - if its working then great, but it is confusing the crowd when clearly no one is laughing. 

Bring the Energy and Talk Fast 
One great trick in a tough bar room is to bring the energy and get them to pay attention. This isn't the little room at Flappers or The Ice House. This is sink or swim, and if your room doesn't have the natural ambience of a club room with a manager to throw out hecklers, be the force of nature they can't deny. You'd be surprised how a little more energy out of you can get them to shut up. In theory, you need to be more entertaining than what's happening in the room. You need to be more interesting than a sports game on TV or a pretty bartender. Acting too cool for school won't do it. 

There's different energies for different rooms. When the crowd comes to a club show, they are expecting comedy. They want to listen. Theatre shows have a built in maturity. The audiences know their place. Bar shows don't inherently demand that type of dedication. Talking faster than a heckler who can beat you to the punchline is a way to maintain control of the room. By matching the chaos you end up controlling the chaos. A laid back style might be the death of you in a show dominated by blenders screeching, waiters yelling, and the sounds of outdoor shenanigans.

Don't Be Afraid to Play the Front Row Only
If you see other comics try high energy and fail, go small. Back in 2016 I was at 200 person bar show in San Luis Obispo. The crowd turned on the opening comic, and I was told if I didn't get the crowd into the show, they weren't going to let the last two sets perform. So instead of trying to go big, I went small. I got the first two rows laughing. Eventually, the rest of bar got quiet when they heard the crowd work generate laughs. Soon, the whole room was in my control. By creating an intimacy between me and a few guests, the others got jealous. The show ended up being a success, and I got paid an extra $50 for saving it. I used the same trick in 2021 at a bar show coming out of the pandemic. It's a bit of a Hail Mary move, but when you see the crowd is out of it, you need to get a few on your side, so the rest will follow. 

Final Thoughts 
Bar shows can be low paying (or non-paying) and annoying. They lack the controlled environment of a club or theatre show, and often they have little or no advancement opportunities. But they do one thing the safety net of club bringer shows don't - they make you a stronger comic. You learn techniques you wouldn't otherwise. And when you start getting paid casino room or bar room shows, you'll need that experience. Last year I played 20 casino shows and around 100 bar shows. So when I had 1,000 seat theatre shows, the ability to handle a lot of energy was already self taught. So don't see them as a night off - instead see them as a night to step up.     

​In sports we have a word for when an athlete gets into their head and loses confidence in themselves: The Yips. In comedy, this happens too. That killer joke starts to lose steam. Your voice begins crackling at points it never did before. The act becomes dated and you start hating yourself and/or the crowd for not getting and giving the desired response. It happens to everyone, even the best of pros. Why? Because we are complex human beings whose lives are changing every moment.
From the schedule we lead to the food we consume to the money we make - all create the person we are and how we feel about ourselves. Too often we live in the false reality that whatever is will always be - when that clearly isn't the case. All that is today is just for now, and as you change, your comedy will ebb and flow. So when you find yourself in a slump, you can either push through, pause and reset, or quit. But regardless of your choice, just know the circus continues on whether you do or do not. 

What Defines the Comedy Yips aka Slump? 
For everyone it is a bit different. For some it has to deal with the amount of bookings they're getting. For others it is the amount of writing they are churning out. And for others its the amount of laughter they're getting while on stage. Depending on how long you've been doing stand up, the yips will feel differently for each individual, but it's important to know that these slumps are normal and they happen to everyone. So keep that in mind when reading the rest of this article. 

Why Do the Yips Invade Our Psyche?
As you evolve as a comic or performer, your performance and bag of tricks will change as well. Sometimes the yips aren't because you are getting worse at stand up, but because you are outgrowing your old self. Yes, you might be in a slump because you've outgrown the rooms and jokes you relied on earlier in your career that no longer fit your stage presence. 

This is an easy fix, as you want to start reaching out to venues with better stages and longer sets. In a weird way, the comedy gods are telling you it's time to separate yourself from those who aren't on the same path. This is normal. Do not feel bad about having to move on, as the longer you stay doing the same places and same types of jokes you won't grow. In fact, sometimes the jokes worked before because you brought a nervous energy to the joke. But as you became better on stage, the joke that exposed your rookie mentality doesn't work the same anymore.  

But what if you're playing the right venues but just feeling "off?" When this happens, there are usually other factors involved. Sometimes it's about the relationships in your life. Maybe you are going through a breakup or you've met someone who makes you feel better about yourself. Maybe you've lost a loved one. After I lost my cousin, it took me months to feel good to be on stage again. And when I was dating a girl that made me second guess everything, it crept into my comedy. When we broke up, I was able to make jokes about the relationship, and got myself back on track. 

Sometimes it's your health. When I was really fat (280 pounds) I was able to do jokes about my weight and dating life that had a great "sitcom" feeling to it. After my heart condition I lost over 80 pounds, so I had to change my jokes around. My jokes about sweating and being a Bakersfield 9 just didn't work anymore. I found that my jokes about dating women out of my league did really well, as people connected to the idea I lost weight and started dating new people. As my health changed, my art changed. Just like when comics have kids, get married, switch jobs, or move, they'll find new points of view to pontificate on. Sometimes it's just your physical health or environment that has changed how your material or crowd work translates on stage. 

What About the Idea of Luck? 
Here's where my belief in the cosmos and the metaphysical come in. Sometimes we are just in a slump. In sports winning begets winning and losing begets losing. That happens in life too. Sometimes you're just like Job in a story where the world is against you for no specific reason, except it just is. After I was let go last year, I've had my car stolen, teeth issues, gigs canceled, women dump and ghost me, and I've even had my new car need bumper repair. When it rains, it pours. That also goes with success. You get one big gig, and suddenly you get all the big gigs. So many of my actor friends tell me this how their career goes. Homeless one day, in a Super Bowl commercial the next. 

Western world mindset doesn't allow for luck, but from Biblical times to today in eastern cultures, luck is very much a cause and effect variable. We like to think hard work trumps "bad luck," but that simply isn't true. Plenty of hard workers get into slumps. Plenty of song writers have one hit wonders. Plenty of salesmen have devasting slow years. It's the stuff of literature, film, and true crime stories. Go watch a few Dark Side of the Ring episodes on Hulu about the rise and fall of pro wrestlers and you'll see that you can be the top guy one day and end up in jail later in life. Sometimes its choices made and sometimes its injuries and bad management. Either way, luck does play a part in the rise and in the fall. 

One of my favorite books "Oh, the Places You'll Go!" by Dr. Seuss deals with this very idea. Here's a part of the colorful poem we usually forget.  

Oh, The Places You'll Go! by Dr. Seuss (excerpt)  
Wherever you fly, you'll be best of the best.
Wherever you go, you will top all the rest.
Except when you don't.
Because, sometimes, you won't.

I'm sorry to say so
but, sadly, it's true
that Bang-ups
and Hang-ups
can happen to you.

You can get all hung up
in a prickle-ly perch.
And your gang will fly on.
You'll be left in a Lurch.

You'll come down from the Lurch
with an unpleasant bump.
And the chances are, then,
that you'll be in a Slump.

And when you're in a Slump,
you're not in for much fun.
Un-slumping yourself
is not easily done.

You will come to a place where the streets are not marked.
Some windows are lighted. But mostly they're darked.
A place you could sprain both your elbow and chin!
Do you dare to stay out? Do you dare to go in?
How much can you lose? How much can you win?

And IF you go in, should you turn left or right...
or right-and-three-quarters? Or, maybe, not quite?
Or go around back and sneak in from behind?
Simple it's not, I'm afraid you will find,
for a mind-maker-upper to make up his mind.

You can get so confused
that you'll start in to race
down long wiggled roads at a break-necking pace
and grind on for miles cross weirdish wild space,
headed, I fear, toward a most useless place.
The Waiting Place...

...for people just waiting.
Waiting for a train to go
or a bus to come, or a plane to go
or the mail to come, or the rain to go
or the phone to ring, or the snow to snow
or the waiting around for a Yes or No
or waiting for their hair to grow.
Everyone is just waiting.

Waiting for the fish to bite
or waiting for the wind to fly a kite
or waiting around for Friday night
or waiting, perhaps, for their Uncle Jake
or a pot to boil, or a Better Break
or a string of pearls, or a pair of pants
or a wig with curls, or Another Chance.
Everyone is just waiting.

Final Thoughts 
When you do go through a slump, the trick is keep pushing through. Rudyard Kipling's poem "If" deals with that concept with the lines:

And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
    To serve your turn long after they are gone,   
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
    Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

​There is no one size fits all way to get out of a slump, but if you can fight through and give yourself grace, I know you can find a way back to where you were. So often, comics quit after a string of bad sets or experiences. I'm not going to judge, as we all come from a different place. But when Joan Rivers was asked if any of her friends "didn't make it," she responded with "Everyone made it who stuck with it." And that's the trick. First, always remember the yips will happen and second, if you don't quit, you'll come out stronger on the other side. You might have to pivot. You might have to move. You might have to say goodbye to some people. But if you want it, and its meant to be, then keep going until the slump is no longer holding you back.