My 2026 Oscar Predictions

​March 15, 2026 is Academy Awards day. My Christmas Day. Since 1991 I’ve watched the Oscars, and what I love about them is they are the most universal way to celebrate a communal art experience. But like a great sporting event, I enjoy the competitive nature of it all too. Using the Golden Globes, BAFTA (British Awards), PGA (Producers Guild), WGA and the SAG Actors Award as guiding lights, it’s time to place your bets in the office or family pool. This year two films have dominated the race, with “One Battle After Another” (13 nominations) and “Sinners” (a record breaking 16 nominations) winning most of the Best Picture awards from critics and guild groups. Could there be a surprise? Here’s my predictions with a week to go so you can do your own research and pick with confidence.
Best Picture
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
“One Battle After Another” won the Golden Globe (Comedy), BAFTA, WGA and PGA, but Hamnet won the Golden Globe (Drama). Sinners won Best Actor Ensemble for SAG and WGA and has the most nominations heading into the night. There was a time the most nominated film was a shoe in to win, yet we’ve seen socially important films like "12 Years a Slave," “Spotlight,” “Moonlight,” and “CODA” pull off the upset over more nominated films like "La La Land" and "Gravity." Meanwhile, “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value” will battle in the International Film category, while popular films like “Frankenstein,” “F1.” and “Marty Supreme” are just happy to be here. Smaller artistic films like “Train Dreams” and “Bugonia” are too existential to take the top prize. While I can easily see One Battle winning (it's a safe bet), “Sinners” feels like the type of populist film that pulls it out in the end.
Prediction: Sinners
Personal Pick: One Battle After Another

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler “Sinners”
Josh Safdie “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao “Hamnet”
After winning the Director’s Guild, BAFTA, and Golden Globe, this is the year to celebrate Paul Thomas Anderson. Even if the film loses Best Picture, he’s the lock of the night. I will add, if there was an upset, it would be Coogler, but since he's a lock in Original Screenplay, he won't be winning this award...yet. 
Prediction: Anderson
Personal Pick: Anderson


Best Actor
Wagner Moura “The Secret Agent”
Timothée Chalamet “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan “Sinners”
Last year, at this time, Chalamet was crowned the front runner by buzz alone, but after losing BAFTA to Robert Aramayo (“I Swear”) and the SAG Actor to Jordan, he feels vulnerable. As much as I love Moura and DiCaprio, I happily think Jordan is going to pull this out.
Prediction: Jordan
Personal Pick: Jordan


Best Actress
Jessie Buckley “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Kate Hudson “Song Sung Blue”
Renate Reinsve “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone “Bugonia”
After the Toronto International Film Festival, Buckley was crowned the winner of the category, and after sweeping the season, she’s a near lock. But if there was an upset, it would be Byrne in the best performance of any actor all year. 
Prediction: Buckley
Personal Pick: Byrne


Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo “Sinners”
Sean Penn “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård “Sentimental Value”
What a group! All are deserving, and all have a winning track record. Penn won the BAFTA and SAG Actor - so he is looking the best on paper, but his disdain for campaigning and awards shows could keep him from winning. Elordi won the Critic’s Choice. Skarsgård won the Golden Globe. And del Toro leads the critics group (30+ award groups!). So due to all this chaos, elder stateman Lindo has a real shot - like Marcia Gay Harden in 2001 with Pollack. 
Prediction: Lindo
Personal Pick: del Toro


Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor “One Battle After Another”
Like Supporting Actor, this category has been all over the map, which means much chaos. The Sentimental Value ladies will split the vote. Mosaku won the BAFTA, but as a British actress she had home court advantage. Taylor was only in the film’s first third. While Madigan is the film’s only nomination, she won the Critics Choice and SAG Actor award, which makes her the only one to win at least two major precursors. 
Prediction: Madigan
Personal Pick: Mosaku


Other Awards:
Original Screenplay: Sinners
*No one is stopping Coogler from this one.
Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another
*PTA will have at least two Oscars by the night's end. 
Animated Film: KPop Demon Hunters
*An easy pick
International: Sentimental Value
*The Secret Agent could pull this off due to the new voting block, but since Sentimental Value has FOUR acting nominations and a Best Director nomination, this feels like the safe bet.  
Casting: Sinners
*This is the first year for Best Casting. No one knows how this will play out yet. I have a sneaky suspicion that in a few years from now it will become a silver medal for best film.    
Documentary: The Perfect Neighbor
*The frontrunner all year, but it's a whacky category and nothing is certain. Use a dartboard if you want. 
Cinematography: One Battle After Another
*Sinners was winning every award here - until it wasn't. OBAA won the ASC and BAFTA. Those rolling hill roads were too iconic to deny.  
Editing: One Battle After Another
*So many characters, stories, timelines, voice overs, etc. As much as Marty Supreme had some amazing sequences, OBAA is the achievement. 
Sound: F1
*Vrooooom vrooooom always wins. 
Production Design: Frankenstein
*But that castle though! 
Costumes: Frankenstein
*But those Victorian dresses though! 
Makeup & Hair: Frankenstein
*But those monster prosthetics though!  
Song: “Golden” (KPop Demon Hunters)
*It was literally the most popular song in the world all year. BUT if Sinners has a perfect night - "I Lied To You" is waiting in the wings. 
Score: Sinners
*2X Oscar winner Ludwig Goransson is about to be 3X Oscar winner Ludwig Goransson. He's becoming the next John Williams. 
Best Documentary Short: All the Empty Rooms 
*This is what the experts are picking 
Best Animated Short: The Girl Who Cried Pearls 
*It's either this or Butterfly - flip a coin. 
Best Live Action Short: Two People Exchanging Saliva
*This one has three "frontrunners" with The Singers and A Friend of Dorothy getting a lot of love. But my research (watching YouTube videos) tells me this feels like the winner.   
So these are my best guesses. I've been around 80% correct every year, depending on my "shorts" picks. But if you have no idea what you're doing in an Oscar pool contest, you can impress your friends with my picks and steal my analysis. That's my gift to you.