My Final 2025 Oscar Predictions

Sunday March 2, 2025 the Academy Awards will hand out Oscars in 23 categories. Some years like 2024 and 2022 we can predict most award winners with certainty. But this year it's an open race with Emilia Perez leading with 13 nominations, but after the star, transgender woman Karla Sofia Gascon was discovered to have sent out a series of ugly racist tweets, the film's chances of winning were cut down immediately. That opened up the door for early favorites Anora and Conclave as well as late comers Wicked and The Brutalist to take the front runner spot. But a funny thing happened on the way to The Dolby Theater - the awards shows split up the top prize, causing as much uncertainty as the conclave picking a Pope. 

If I had it my way, I'd be giving The Brutalist the top spot, but in reality I'm fine if it's just anything but Emilia Perez. The supporting actor awards have been sweeping while the lead acting awards are going back an forth. SAG and BAFTA through a few wild cards and curve balls, stopping Anora's late season surge. And I'm still convinced Wicked could defy gravity and just get that last minute win with a nice package of tech awards and the top prize. 

Here are my predictions for the 2025 Academy Awards. These aren't my personal favorites, just who I think will win based on precursor awards (Producer's Guild, Screen Actor's Guild, Writer's Guild, Director's Guild, Critic's Choice, BAFTA, and Golden Globes) and my own gut feeling. So here are my picks. If you win any money in the Oscar pool at work, be a mensch and give me 10%!     
My Picks Are In Bold

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave 
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here 
Nickel Boys
The Substance 
Wicked 

It comes down to three films that won the big prizes: Anora (WGA, DGA, PGA, Critics Choice), Conclave (BAFTA, SAG), and The Brutalist (Golden Globes - Drama), and it could really go to any of them. After Wicked didn't win the Globe or SAG, it has to hope the sequel gets the LOTR treatment next year, and the Golden Globe winning Emilia Perez became toxic after the Karla Sofia Gascon tweets went viral. In the end, Conclave is a well liked, "weightier" film with a timeless feel. Plus, the ensemble is just too good and beloved to ignore in a year of so much parity.     

Directing
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

This one is completely up for grabs even though Baker won the DGA. With Corbet winning the BAFTA and Golden Globe, that combo is pretty tough to beat, considering Baker wasn't winning many prizes until the end here.  But with Edward Berger getting snubbed for Conclave, that leaves space for a director whose film might not win Best Picture. In the end, Baker winning DGA and Cannes director award in May, I think the Academy will follow suite and give him his flowers here. 

Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

It looked like Brody had this locked in after winning the BAFTA, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice awards. Then Chalamet took the SAG and now it's anyone's guess. The SAG has predicted best actor 24/30 years now, with only Chadwick Boseman (2021) and Denzel Washington (2018) winning SAG but losing on Oscar night in the last ten years. But I think Brody has enough precursor love and a great comeback narrative to pull through.    

Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

What makes this race so interesting is that it's basically the two versions of Demi Moore in The Substance, with Madison in the Sue role. I think if the Academy goes with Madison, they will completely undercut the entire message of the body horror satire. Even though Madison won BAFTA and Indie Spirits, Moore has Critics Choice, Globes, and SAG. It's her time, and after 20 years in actor purgatory, she's due a big comeback win.  Side Note: Torres could surprise as the Academy loved I'm Still Here more than any other awards body, but with all the crossover voters giving the other actresses votes all season, she might have came on too late. 

Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Keiran Culkin has won Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA, Indie Spirits, and the Golden Globes, plus nearly every critics award. He's 38 years old, been acting for 30+ years and is clearly beloved. He wins in a landslide. 

Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Saldana has swept the awards season, and like Culkin, she has won at every major televised awards show. It's in the bag for her.  

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
A Complete Unknown
Conclave 
Emilia Pérez 
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing 

While Sing Sing had more heart, and a great narrative with the one time prisoners writing the script, Conclave won Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the USC Scripter. Give this film the white smoke. 

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Anora
The Brutalist 
A Real Pain 
September 5 
The Substance

I might be wrong, but something tells me A Real Pain will win over three Best Picture nominees. Anora won WGA. The Brutalist hasn't won a major screenplay award. The Substance won Critics Choice and Cannes. But A Real Pain won BAFTA and Indie Spirits. That's a lot of industry support. Plus with Culkin's supporting actor win, this would be a nice double win, like The Usual Suspects in 1996 when Kevin Spacey won and the film won screenplay. The safe money is on Anora, but since I don't think it pulls out Best Picture, I have to give it to the script with the "most script." 

Animated Feature Film
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail 
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl 
The Wild Robot 

It looked like Flow was going to upset the season after winning the Golden Globe, but The Wild Robot has three total nominations, including sound and score. Plus it got nominated for the USC Scripter Award, a huge honor for adapted screenplays. 

International Feature Film
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)

Emilia Perez has 13 nominations, and that means very little when the star of your movie is now the greatest villain in awards season history. EP could still win, but I'm predicting I'm Still Here, a much more traditional international film winner with a beloved actress giving a top five performance of the year, in a true story that celebrates Latino resistance instead of playing into broad stereotypes like the French film.   

Documentary Feature Film
Black Box Diaries 
No Other Land 
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane

I've seen none of these films, but since Porcelain War won DGA and the other four haven't won a major award, it's a simple process by elimination. No Other Land never got distribution, even though it's a critical darling, and Sugarcane could upset, but again, it didn't win anything to prove it has a clear fanbase. 

Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two 
Emilia Pérez 
Maria
Nosferatu 

So this one is an exciting award to follow as Maria won the American Society of Cinematographers Award, beating out the films its pitted against. Dune won this a few years ago. The Brutalist was the favorite with it's amazing tour of the world, but then Nosferatu won BAFTA. Yet, when voters go down the line, I think they'll pick the film with the best chance to win best picture, and that's The Brutalist. 

Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave 
Gladiator II 
Nosferatu 
Wicked 

Had Gladiator II earned more nominations, it might have been the favorite, having won this award in 2001 for the original film, but there's no way it repeats here. This award should go to Wicked, with all the magically colored dresses, school uniforms, and love for the visuals of John M. Chu's fantasy. 

Film Editing
Anora 
The Brutalist 
Conclave 
Emilia Pérez 
Wicked

If Conclave wins editing, it's winning Best Picture. If anything else takes this, which Wicked and all those dance numbers could, then Anora or The Brutalist is taking the top prize. If Anora or The Brutalist wins this award, then look for them to sweep the night away. But I'm officially on the Conclave train.  

Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man 
Emilia Pérez 
Nosferatu 
The Substance 
Wicked 

The Substance has won every time its been in this category across the awards season. This film made two gorgeous actresses look like hideous monsters. It's too perfect a job to not award.  

Production Design
The Brutalist 
Conclave 
Dune: Part Two 
Nosferatu 
Wicked 

The Brutalist is about production design, so it should be sweeping, but Wicked has all those great sets alluding to the Broadway musical and the original 1939 classic The Wizard of Oz. The Academy might not be able to award the sequel Wicked For Good if there isn't much variation, so expect them to give the tech team as many as they can Oscar night. 

Sound
A Complete Unknown 
Dune: Part Two 
Emilia Pérez 
Wicked 
The Wild Robot 

Check this out: Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, Wicked, and The Wild Robot all won sound awards in their respective categories at The Golden Reel Awards, and A Complete Unknown won the Sound Mixing Award at the Cinema Audio Society Awards. So every film has won the top sound award they could, making this a hard one to choose. I would give it to A Complete Unknown for those epic concert scenes, but I think the bigger the better, and Dune 2 is as big as it gets. 

Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus 
Better Man 
Dune: Part Two 
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes 
Wicked 

If the Oscar voters want to award Wicked everything possible, then the upset win would be the beloved prequel, but Dune 2 has those sand worms that are beyond stunning. 

Music (Original Score)
The Brutalist 
Conclave 
Emilia Pérez 
Wicked 
The Wild Robot

It's the gong heard around the world. The Brutalist's score is already a fan favorite and the most memorable. I will say this, if Conclave or Wicked pull this out, then The Brutalist might not win anything.   

Music (Original Song)
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez 
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight 
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing 
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez 
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Diane Warren has 17 nominations with The Journey, but she'll have to wait for number 18 as "El Mal" has swept the season. With 13 Oscar nominations, Emilia Perez will most likely win two awards. 

Animated Short Film
Beautiful Men 
In the Shadow of the Cypress 
Magic Candies 
Wander to Wonder 
Yuck!

I've seen all 5 films here, and I would pick Magic Candies if I was a voter, but Wander to Wonder won BAFTA and has Toby Jones doing voice work, meaning there's a little star power behind it. 

Live-Action Short Film
A Lien 
Anuja 
I’m Not a Robot 
The Last Ranger 
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

I've seen none of these, but Netflix put Anuja on their platform, giving it the most exposure. 

Documentary Short Film
Death by Numbers 
I Am Ready, Warden 
Incident 
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra 

Titles are important and how could you not vote for The Only Girl in the Orchestra? I Am Ready, Warden is the favorite, but is slipping in Oscar pundit odds every day. 

Total Wins Predictions:
Conclave - 3
The Brutalist - 3
Emilia Perez - 2
Wicked - 2 
Dune: Part 2 - 2 
The Substance - 2 
A Real Pain - 2 
I'm Still Here - 1
Porcelain War - 1  
Anora - 1
The Wild Robot- 1
The Only Girl in the Orchestra - 1
Wander to Wonder - 1
Anuja - 1 

I usually get 75% to 80% right every year. This year I'm not going 100% but maybe I'll do it next year! 
What are your picks?